In a previous blog post, I shared the stats for the Local Authorities which had the highest proportion of students who left to study outside of Wales (with over 50% in 2021/22!). I suggested that these figures start to tell a story... namely that proximity to the border with England, as well as whether there are significant local pulls for students (such as a university or a large built-up area) are important factors in the likelihood of students choosing to study outside of Wales or not.
But if these were the only factors at play, you would perhaps predict that Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Pembrokeshire, Anglesey, Carmarthenshire or Swansea Local Authorities would be the places which have the least amount of students that leave Wales (i.e. places to the west of Wales, especially those that have universities and cities).
Instead, the four Local Authorities where less than 25% of their students left Wales for study in 2021/22 are:
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Students from the areas are staying locally, and these four Local Authorities share the same six most popular university destinations (although in different orders), namely the five universities based in South Wales and the Open University.
So what's going on here? Why are the rates of students leaving Wales here so low, despite being closer to the east of Wales than the other areas mentioned earlier?
I would suggest that it points to another major factor which determines the likelihood of someone leaving Wales for study - socio-economic deprivation.
According to the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation, these four Local Authorities has the highest percentage of areas in the most deprived 50% in Wales. It's an obvious point, but those from wealthier backgrounds are more likely to be able to move away for study - elite English universities (or elsewhere in the world) are more likely to be an option for them, and they can afford the potentially high cost of living that they might experience outside of Wales. Conversely, for somebody from a less affluent background, staying local may make more sense if it means that they can save money (especially if this includes the option of staying at home).
Or to present another situation, if you were the first generation to go to university in your family, would you be more likely to stay locally or venture outside of Wales? I think probably the former.
In a previous blog post, I shared the stats for the Local Authorities which had the highest proportion of students who left to study outside of Wales (with over 50% in 2021/22!). I suggested that these figures start to tell a story... namely that proximity to the border with England, as well as whether there are significant local pulls for students (such as a university or a large built-up area) are important factors in the likelihood of students choosing to study outside of Wales or not.
But if these were the only factors at play, you would perhaps predict that Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Pembrokeshire, Anglesey, Carmarthenshire or Swansea Local Authorities would be the places which have the least amount of students that leave Wales (i.e. places to the west of Wales, especially those that have universities and cities).
Instead, the four Local Authorities where less than 25% of their students left Wales for study in 2021/22 are:
Students from the areas are staying locally, and these four Local Authorities share the same six most popular university destinations (although in different orders), namely the five universities based in South Wales and the Open University.
So what's going on here? Why are the rates of students leaving Wales here so low, despite being closer to the east of Wales than the other areas mentioned earlier?
I would suggest that it points to another major factor which determines the likelihood of someone leaving Wales for study - socio-economic deprivation.
According to the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation, these four Local Authorities has the highest percentage of areas in the most deprived 50% in Wales. It's an obvious point, but those from wealthier backgrounds are more likely to be able to move away for study - elite English universities (or elsewhere in the world) are more likely to be an option for them, and they can afford the potentially high cost of living that they might experience outside of Wales. Conversely, for somebody from a less affluent background, staying local may make more sense if it means that they can save money (especially if this includes the option of staying at home).
Or to present another situation, if you were the first generation to go to university in your family, would you be more likely to stay locally or venture outside of Wales? I think probably the former.
Mewn blogbost blaenorol, rhannais yr ystadegau ar gyfer yr Awdurdodau Lleol oedd â’r gyfran uchaf o fyfyrwyr a adawodd Cymru i astudio (gyda dros 50% yn 2021/22!). Awgrymais fod y ffigurau hyn yn dechrau adrodd stori... sef bod agosrwydd at y ffin â Lloegr, yn ogystal ag a oes yna atyniadau lleol sylweddol i fyfyrwyr (fel prifysgol neu ardal adeiledig fawr) yn ffactorau pwysig yn y tebygolrwydd y byddai myfyrwyr yn dewis astudio y tu allan i Gymru ai peidio.
Ond os taw dyma’r unig ffactorau sydd ar waith, efallai y byddech yn rhagweld mai Awdurdodau Lleol Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Sir Benfro, Ynys Môn, Sir Gaerfyrddin neu Abertawe fyddai’r lleoedd sydd â’r nifer leiaf myfyrwyr sy’n gadael Cymru (h.y. lleoedd i’r gorllewin, yn enwedig y rheini sydd â phrifysgolion a dinasoedd).
Yn lle hynny, y pedwar Awdurdod Lleol lle gadawodd llai na 25% o’u myfyrwyr Gymru i astudio yn 2021/22 yw:
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Mae myfyrwyr o’r ardaloedd yn aros yn lleol, ac mae’r pedwar Awdurdod Lleol hyn yn rhannu’r un chwe prifysgol mwyaf poblogaidd (er mewn trefn wahanol), sef y pum prifysgol yn Ne Cymru a’r Brifysgol Agored.
Felly beth sy'n digwydd yma? Pam fod cyfraddau’r myfyrwyr sy’n gadael Cymru yma mor isel, er eu bod yn nes at ddwyrain Cymru na’r ardaloedd eraill a soniwyd amdanynt yn gynharach?
Byddwn yn awgrymu ei fod yn pwyntio at ffactor mawr arall sy'n pennu'r tebygolrwydd y bydd rhywun yn gadael Cymru i astudio - amddifadedd economaidd-gymdeithasol.
Yn ôl Mynegai Amddifadedd Lluosog Cymru, y pedwar Awdurdod Lleol hyn sydd â'r ganran uchaf o ardaloedd yn y 50% mwyaf difreintiedig yng Nghymru. Mae'n bwynt amlwg, ond mae'r rhai sydd o gefndiroedd cyfoethocach yn fwy tebygol o allu symud i ffwrdd i astudio - mae prifysgolion elitaidd Lloegr (neu unrhyw le arall yn y byd) yn fwy tebygol o fod yn opsiwn iddynt, a gallant fforddio'r costau byw uchel posibl y gallent eu profi y tu allan i Gymru. I’r gwrthwyneb, i rywun o gefndir llai cefnog, gall aros yn lleol wneud mwy o synnwyr os yw’n golygu y gallant arbed arian (yn enwedig os yw hyn yn cynnwys yr opsiwn o aros gartref).
Neu i gyflwyno sefyllfa arall, os mai chi oedd y genhedlaeth gyntaf yn eich teulu i fynd i’r brifysgol, a fyddech chi’n fwy tebygol o aros yn lleol neu fentro y tu allan i Gymru? Y cyntaf, mae'n debyg, yn fy marn i.