Where do graduates from Wales study and work?

Dr Owain James

I'm often asked about where graduates end up working after they graduate, and how this differs depending on where they studied.

Thankfully, we have something of a breakdown courtesy of HESA. HESA's data shows us the pattern of where graduates work 15 months after graduating and segments them according to the following categories:

"A. Stays in same region for study and finds work in same LAUA as original location of residence

B. Returns to the same LAUA for work as original location of residence, having left region/country for study

C. Stays in same region for study, but finds work in different LAUA (in the same region) to original location of residence

D. Returns to a different LAUA (of the same region) for work when compared with original location of residence, having moved region/country for study

E. Moved region/country for work, but did not move region for study

F. Moved region/country for study, but did not then move region/country again for work

G. Moved region/country for study and then moved region/country again for work (with the region/country being different to their original region/country of residence)"

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Here are the results for Wales:

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It's worth comparing this data with the English regions, Scotland, and Northern Ireland (which you can do here).

You can draw different conclusions from the stats in this graphic, but perhaps the most obvious point to make is that the graduates least likely to work in Wales after graduating are those who study outside of Wales. But this graph is helpful in other ways:

Firstly, it gives us a better understand of how or 'at what point' people leave Wales for work after studying. For instance, if you compare the data for Scotland, the picture looks completely different. They barely have any 'returners' compared with Wales because so few leave Scotland for study because of the free tuition offer. However, they have a higher rate of graduates who leave Scotland for work after initially studying in Scotland (than Wales does). So this graph helps us understand at what point Wales is 'losing' graduates from Wales - but it also shows us the importance of things like policy in shaping graduate mobility trends.

The second reason I think this breakdown is helpful is because when we talk about 'returners' to Wales, this doesn't necessarily mean coming back to the same place within Wales. This graph starts to suggest that there are layers to the brain drain - i.e. if people from Gwynedd return to Wales, but go to Cardiff, is this a win or not? They are not the same type of returners as someone coming back to Gwynedd, certainly. But unfortunately, without a more localised version of this data, we can't see how different Local Authorities are impacted (i.e. who loses out most and benefits most), even if we can hazard a guess.

But there are limitations to this data:

  • This only provides a snapshot of graduates 15 months after graduating. What would the pattern look like 5 years on? 10 years on? Will there be less 'leavers' or more?
  • This data is for those who graduated in 2017-18 and 2018-19. Covid-19 and the rise in inflation could have a major impact on these stats, but we just don't know yet!
  • It really only gives us a national picture. These stats from HESA, although incredibly insightful, don't help us understand the situation at a more local level. For instance, what does the picture look like for Wales' four economic regions? What about per Local Authority? HESA themselves are aware of this need, saying 'we recognise that users will be interested in such statistics at an even more local level. Over the coming years therefore, we shall be examining the feasibility of conducting analysis into topics such as the ‘brain drain’ at the LAUA domain...'. I really hope that they do!

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English
Cymraeg

I'm often asked about where graduates end up working after they graduate, and how this differs depending on where they studied.

Thankfully, we have something of a breakdown courtesy of HESA. HESA's data shows us the pattern of where graduates work 15 months after graduating and segments them according to the following categories:

"A. Stays in same region for study and finds work in same LAUA as original location of residence

B. Returns to the same LAUA for work as original location of residence, having left region/country for study

C. Stays in same region for study, but finds work in different LAUA (in the same region) to original location of residence

D. Returns to a different LAUA (of the same region) for work when compared with original location of residence, having moved region/country for study

E. Moved region/country for work, but did not move region for study

F. Moved region/country for study, but did not then move region/country again for work

G. Moved region/country for study and then moved region/country again for work (with the region/country being different to their original region/country of residence)"

‍

Here are the results for Wales:

‍

It's worth comparing this data with the English regions, Scotland, and Northern Ireland (which you can do here).

You can draw different conclusions from the stats in this graphic, but perhaps the most obvious point to make is that the graduates least likely to work in Wales after graduating are those who study outside of Wales. But this graph is helpful in other ways:

Firstly, it gives us a better understand of how or 'at what point' people leave Wales for work after studying. For instance, if you compare the data for Scotland, the picture looks completely different. They barely have any 'returners' compared with Wales because so few leave Scotland for study because of the free tuition offer. However, they have a higher rate of graduates who leave Scotland for work after initially studying in Scotland (than Wales does). So this graph helps us understand at what point Wales is 'losing' graduates from Wales - but it also shows us the importance of things like policy in shaping graduate mobility trends.

The second reason I think this breakdown is helpful is because when we talk about 'returners' to Wales, this doesn't necessarily mean coming back to the same place within Wales. This graph starts to suggest that there are layers to the brain drain - i.e. if people from Gwynedd return to Wales, but go to Cardiff, is this a win or not? They are not the same type of returners as someone coming back to Gwynedd, certainly. But unfortunately, without a more localised version of this data, we can't see how different Local Authorities are impacted (i.e. who loses out most and benefits most), even if we can hazard a guess.

But there are limitations to this data:

  • This only provides a snapshot of graduates 15 months after graduating. What would the pattern look like 5 years on? 10 years on? Will there be less 'leavers' or more?
  • This data is for those who graduated in 2017-18 and 2018-19. Covid-19 and the rise in inflation could have a major impact on these stats, but we just don't know yet!
  • It really only gives us a national picture. These stats from HESA, although incredibly insightful, don't help us understand the situation at a more local level. For instance, what does the picture look like for Wales' four economic regions? What about per Local Authority? HESA themselves are aware of this need, saying 'we recognise that users will be interested in such statistics at an even more local level. Over the coming years therefore, we shall be examining the feasibility of conducting analysis into topics such as the ‘brain drain’ at the LAUA domain...'. I really hope that they do!

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Yn aml, gofynnir i mi ble mae graddedigion yn gweithio ar ôl graddio, a sut mae hyn yn amrywio yn ôl lle buont yn astudio. Diolch i HESA, mae gennym ni syniad o hyn. Mae data HESA yn dangos lle mae graddedigion yn gweithio 15 mis ar ôl graddio ac yn eu segmentu yn ôl y categorïau canlynol:

"A. Yn aros yn yr un rhanbarth i astudio ac yn dod o hyd i waith yn yr un Awdurdod Lleol â'u lleoliad preswyl gwreiddiol

B. Yn dychwelyd i'r un Awdurdod Lleol ar gyfer gwaith â'u man preswylio gwreiddiol, ar ôl gadael y rhanbarth/gwlad i astudio

C. Yn aros yn yr un rhanbarth i astudio, ond yn dod o hyd i waith mewn Awdurdod Lleol gwahanol (yn yr un rhanbarth) i leoliad gwreiddiol y preswyliad

D. Yn dychwelyd i Awdurdod Lleol gwahanol (o'r un rhanbarth) ar gyfer gwaith o'i gymharu â'r lleoliad gwreiddiol, ar ôl symud rhanbarth/gwlad i astudio

E. Wedi symud rhanbarth/gwlad ar gyfer gwaith, ond heb symud rhanbarth i astudio

F. Wedi symud rhanbarth/gwlad ar gyfer astudio, ond heb symud rhanbarth/gwlad eto ar gyfer gwaith

G. Symud rhanbarth/gwlad ar gyfer astudio ac yna symud rhanbarth/gwlad eto ar gyfer gwaith (gyda'r rhanbarth/gwlad yn wahanol i'w rhanbarth/gwlad breswyl wreiddiol)"

Dyma’r canlyniadau ar gyfer Cymru:

Mae'n werth cymharu'r data hwn â rhanbarthau Lloegr, yr Alban, a Gogledd Iwerddon (mae modd gwneud hyn yma).

Gallwch ddod i gasgliadau gwahanol o’r ystadegau yn y graffig hwn, ond efallai mai’r pwynt amlycaf i’w wneud yw mai’r graddedigion sydd leiaf tebygol o weithio yng Nghymru ar ôl graddio yw’r rhai sy’n astudio y tu allan i Gymru.

Yn gyntaf, mae'n rhoi gwell dealltwriaeth inni o sut neu 'pryd' mae pobl yn gadael Cymru i weithio ar ôl astudio. Er enghraifft, os cymharwch y data ar gyfer yr Alban, mae'r darlun yn edrych yn hollol wahanol. Prin fod ganddynt unrhyw 'ddychwelwyr' o gymharu â Chymru oherwydd bod cyn lleied yn gadael yr Alban i astudio oherwydd y cynnig i ddysgu am ddim yno. Fodd bynnag, mae ganddynt gyfradd uwch o raddedigion sy'n gadael yr Alban i weithio ar ôl astudio yn yr Alban i ddechrau (nag sydd gan Gymru). Felly mae'r graff hwn yn ein helpu i ddeall ar ba bwynt y mae Cymru yn 'colli' graddedigion o Gymru - ond mae hefyd yn dangos i ni pwysigrwydd pethau fel polisi wrth lunio tueddiadau symudedd graddedigion.

Yr ail reswm rwy'n meddwl bod y data yn y ffurf yma yn ddefnyddiol yw oherwydd pan fyddwn yn sôn am 'ddychwelwyr' i Gymru, nid yw hyn o reidrwydd yn golygu dod yn ôl i'r un lle o fewn Cymru. Mae’r graff hwn yn dechrau awgrymu bod haenau i'r draen doniau – h.y. os yw pobl o Wynedd yn dychwelyd i Gymru, ond yn mynd i Gaerdydd, ai buddugoliaeth yw hon ai peidio? Nid yr un math o ddychwelwyr ydyn nhw â rhywun sy’n dod yn ôl i Wynedd, yn sicr. Ond yn anffodus, heb fersiwn mwy lleol o’r data hwn, ni allwn weld sut yr effeithir ar wahanol Awdurdodau Lleol (h.y. pwy sy’n colli fwyaf ac sy’n cael y budd mwyaf), hyd yn oed os gallwn ddyfalu.

Ond mae cyfyngiadau i'r data hwn:

  • Dim ond ciplun o raddedigion 15 mis ar ôl graddio y mae hyn yn ei roi. Sut olwg fyddai ar y patrwm 5 mlynedd yn ddiweddarach? 10 mlynedd yn ddiweddarach? A fydd llai o 'adawyr' neu fwy?
  • Mae'r data hwn ar gyfer y rhai a raddiodd yn 2017-18 a 2018-19. Gallai Covid-19 a’r cynnydd mewn chwyddiant gael effaith fawr ar yr ystadegau hyn, ond nid ydym yn gwybod eto!
  • Dim ond darlun cenedlaethol y mae’n ei roi mewn gwirionedd. Er bod yr ystadegau hyn gan HESA yn ddefnyddiol iawn, nid ydynt yn ein helpu i ddeall y sefyllfa ar lefel fwy lleol. Er enghraifft, sut olwg sydd ar y darlun ar gyfer pedwar rhanbarth economaidd Cymru? Beth am fesul Awdurdod Lleol? Mae HESA eu hunain yn ymwybodol o'r angen hwn, gan ddweud 'rydym yn cydnabod y bydd gan ddefnyddwyr ddiddordeb mewn ystadegau o'r fath ar lefel hyd yn oed yn fwy lleol. Dros y blynyddoedd nesaf felly, byddwn yn edrych ar ddichonoldeb cynnal dadansoddiad o bynciau megis y 'draen doniau' ar lefel Awdurdod Lleol...’. Dwi wir yn gobeithio y byddant yn gwneud hyn!